5 Questions Heading Into the 2017 iNHL Entry Draft
Jun 7, 2016 19:14:20 GMT -5
Travis (DET) likes this
Post by Beans (BOS) on Jun 7, 2016 19:14:20 GMT -5
With less than 5 days to go until the 2017 draft, here are the 5 biggest questions that will be answered over the next few days:
1) Will the big-3 go 1,2,3? We would be surprised if Nolan Patrick - the consensus #1 pick - didn't go first, but there could be some questions about picks 2 and 3. Timothy Liljegren and Maxime Comtois have seemingly separated themselves from the rest of the pack but that's no guarantee that Winnipeg (#2) and LA (#3) will stick to the script. Liljegren is a heady, two-way defenseman with no holes in his game. While he lacks the flash of most high-end picks, his smarts help him make the subtle plays that only the truly elite can pull off and most agree that Liljegren could step onto an iNHL blueline as early as next season. Comtois, by contrast, is a high-end offensive center who played in all minutes for the awful Victoriaville Tigers. In addition to off-the-charts hockey IQ in the offensive zone, Comtois boasts iNHL strength already and, like Liljegren, could make his iNHL debut as early as next season. It isn’t clear which other prospect would make the jump into the top 3 but if Carolina, Winnipeg, or LA chases positional need instead of going with BPA, it could very well happen.
2) Will we see another run on defenseman? The 2016 draft was notable for several reasons but one of the interesting storylines was the run on high-end D-men early in the draft. Jacob Chychrun got the party started early last season at #2, but Jake Bean (#7), Mikhail Sergachev (#8), and Olli Juolevi (#10) joined him in the top 10 while Kyle Clague (#11), Dante Fabbro (#13), Charlie McAvoy (#14), Loik Leveille (#17), Jacob Cederholm (#22), Frederic Allard (#24), Luke Green (#26), Sam Girard (#27), and Kenny Johnson (#28) were also taken in the first round. With the premium iNHL GMs have been putting on talented blueliners, it would not be surprising to see a similar run on D this year, with the likes of Liljegren, Max Gildon, Luke Martin, David Farrace, Brendan Gagner, Nicolas Hague, Juuso Valimaki, Simon Le Coultre, and Urho Vaakanainen among the favorites to be taken with high picks this year.
3) How big will the Russian factor loom? This year there are a lot of high-end Russians in the draft. All things equal these prospects would be blue-chippers but the risk of having these guys stay in Russia will surely lead some GMs to take a pass on what could very well be the best player available in favour of “safer” talent from North America and Western/Northern Europe. The big names to watch this year are Klim Kostin, Maxim Zhukov Alexei Lipanov, Denis Morozov, and to a lesser extent Nikita Popugayev, who already plays in North America, with Moose Jaw of the WHL. Lipanov and Kostin, in particular, appear to have elite, game-breaking scoring ability, so the risk-reward analysis will be close. Our bet is that Popugayev is the first Russian off the board this year.
4) Who will be the next Loik Leveille? Last year, Leveille was the man-child of the draft, clearly further developed than most of his draft peers (reflecting the fact he was a year older). Undeterred by age (as always), GM Paul and the iOilers didn’t hesitate to use the 17th pick on the “risky” D-man and the results were overwhelmingly successful. Leveille has since developed into a stud for the iOilers (13-36-49 in his rookie season) and the pick is one of the best of last year’s draft. Success breeds imitation so we expect every GM will be looking for the next Loik Leveille to provide an immediate lift to their team’s fortunes. Our bet this year is on Kailer Yamamoto - the 6”0’ pivot from the Spokane Chiefs is a year older than most in the draft and not rated high enough to be a consensus first rounder, but does everything well and looks like he could be iNHL ready immediately. Our guess is he’s taken in the 10-15 range, surpassing even Loik Leveille’s draft position from last season.
5) Will a goalie be selected in the first round? Probably, but probably not as many as is justified based on ratings. The top goalies this year are Zhukov (see Russian factor, above), Jake Oettinger, Michael DiPietro, David Otter, and Stuart Skinner. Each of these guys has first round potential, with the Russian-born Zhukov the highest potential in our view. We would be surprised if one of these guys didn’t get selected in the first round, but we’d be equally surprised if more than 1 was selected amongst the first 30 picks.
1) Will the big-3 go 1,2,3? We would be surprised if Nolan Patrick - the consensus #1 pick - didn't go first, but there could be some questions about picks 2 and 3. Timothy Liljegren and Maxime Comtois have seemingly separated themselves from the rest of the pack but that's no guarantee that Winnipeg (#2) and LA (#3) will stick to the script. Liljegren is a heady, two-way defenseman with no holes in his game. While he lacks the flash of most high-end picks, his smarts help him make the subtle plays that only the truly elite can pull off and most agree that Liljegren could step onto an iNHL blueline as early as next season. Comtois, by contrast, is a high-end offensive center who played in all minutes for the awful Victoriaville Tigers. In addition to off-the-charts hockey IQ in the offensive zone, Comtois boasts iNHL strength already and, like Liljegren, could make his iNHL debut as early as next season. It isn’t clear which other prospect would make the jump into the top 3 but if Carolina, Winnipeg, or LA chases positional need instead of going with BPA, it could very well happen.
2) Will we see another run on defenseman? The 2016 draft was notable for several reasons but one of the interesting storylines was the run on high-end D-men early in the draft. Jacob Chychrun got the party started early last season at #2, but Jake Bean (#7), Mikhail Sergachev (#8), and Olli Juolevi (#10) joined him in the top 10 while Kyle Clague (#11), Dante Fabbro (#13), Charlie McAvoy (#14), Loik Leveille (#17), Jacob Cederholm (#22), Frederic Allard (#24), Luke Green (#26), Sam Girard (#27), and Kenny Johnson (#28) were also taken in the first round. With the premium iNHL GMs have been putting on talented blueliners, it would not be surprising to see a similar run on D this year, with the likes of Liljegren, Max Gildon, Luke Martin, David Farrace, Brendan Gagner, Nicolas Hague, Juuso Valimaki, Simon Le Coultre, and Urho Vaakanainen among the favorites to be taken with high picks this year.
3) How big will the Russian factor loom? This year there are a lot of high-end Russians in the draft. All things equal these prospects would be blue-chippers but the risk of having these guys stay in Russia will surely lead some GMs to take a pass on what could very well be the best player available in favour of “safer” talent from North America and Western/Northern Europe. The big names to watch this year are Klim Kostin, Maxim Zhukov Alexei Lipanov, Denis Morozov, and to a lesser extent Nikita Popugayev, who already plays in North America, with Moose Jaw of the WHL. Lipanov and Kostin, in particular, appear to have elite, game-breaking scoring ability, so the risk-reward analysis will be close. Our bet is that Popugayev is the first Russian off the board this year.
4) Who will be the next Loik Leveille? Last year, Leveille was the man-child of the draft, clearly further developed than most of his draft peers (reflecting the fact he was a year older). Undeterred by age (as always), GM Paul and the iOilers didn’t hesitate to use the 17th pick on the “risky” D-man and the results were overwhelmingly successful. Leveille has since developed into a stud for the iOilers (13-36-49 in his rookie season) and the pick is one of the best of last year’s draft. Success breeds imitation so we expect every GM will be looking for the next Loik Leveille to provide an immediate lift to their team’s fortunes. Our bet this year is on Kailer Yamamoto - the 6”0’ pivot from the Spokane Chiefs is a year older than most in the draft and not rated high enough to be a consensus first rounder, but does everything well and looks like he could be iNHL ready immediately. Our guess is he’s taken in the 10-15 range, surpassing even Loik Leveille’s draft position from last season.
5) Will a goalie be selected in the first round? Probably, but probably not as many as is justified based on ratings. The top goalies this year are Zhukov (see Russian factor, above), Jake Oettinger, Michael DiPietro, David Otter, and Stuart Skinner. Each of these guys has first round potential, with the Russian-born Zhukov the highest potential in our view. We would be surprised if one of these guys didn’t get selected in the first round, but we’d be equally surprised if more than 1 was selected amongst the first 30 picks.